Flurry projected that 73 percent of fourth quarter app starts will be by iOS developers compared to 27 percent for Android. That’s based on the first month of the fourth quarter. That would be slightly less than the 75 percent Apple had in the third quarter but on par with the second quarter when it also had 73 percent of app starts. Android actually had its best quarter in the first quarter, when it got 37 percent of app starts.

This data was pulled from new project starts in 2011, in which developers set up analytics for approximately 50,000 apps. Flurry said it’s used in about 25 percent of all iOS and Android apps.

On the revenue side, the comparison also favors iOS by a 3-1 ratio. Flurry found that for top apps running on both platforms, for every dollar generated on iOS, the same app will make 24 cents on Android. This is based on a sample of in-app purchases of top apps comprising millions of users on both platforms. Flurry said the big difference came down to the relatively lower penetration of Google Checkout. Compared to an iTunes account, which every iOS user needs to buy anything, not every Android user has a Google Checkout account, which adds an extra barrier to purchases of apps and in-app transactions.

Google has still a lot to crow about. As we’ve written, it’s hit 10 billion in Android app downloads and it appears to have pushed past iOS in the pace of recent downloads. Flurry estimates that 550,000 Android devices are now activated daily compared to an estimated 450,000 for iOS.

But the numbers show that it’s not just about device market share or the aggregate number of downloads. It’s about which users are more valuable to developers. There is still more of a culture of buying and spending money on iOS and that benefits Apple. Even Amazon with its Kindle Fire is proving to be a popular option for Android developers because those early tablet users appear to be open to buying a lot of things.

Google is working on this and its steps to integrate Google Checkout and Google Wallet are helpful. Also, moves to get new Android users to enter their credit card information when they set up their phone will be beneficial. And as the Android device market share continues to grow, developers can’t ignore the big opportunity there. But it looks like iOS is still very much their priority and despite the wishful thinking of Schmidt, it’s going to take a lot for Android to win the hearts of developers.

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Now, on a surface level this might seem intuitive considering how many apps are available on the two platforms. But the figures show that the top two operating systems account for a bigger chunk of app downloads than their relative footprint would logically suggest. Competitors also have apps, but these two are the leading destinations for people who are eager for mobile software.

That shows why it’s hard to break into the top of the smartphone market, which is dominated by what the New York Times‘ David Pogue calls “app phones.” It’s not enough to have elegant hardware, you have to bring a very vibrant and broad app market to consumers, too. That’s partly why iOS and Android are sitting pretty: they offer a lot of very compelling apps that make money for developers, more so on iOS but increasingly so on Android.

For competitors like BlackBerry or Windows Phone 7 to compete, they need to really bring the app heat as well. Both are working hard on doing so, but it’s hard to close the distance when iOS and Android have such a lead. And that lead also benefits Google and Apple through app lock-in, in which consumers may be reluctant to leave a platform because they have a lot of apps and data tied into one operating system. Getting someone to switch to a new platform requires a big commitment from a user, who has to know that the apps they want will be waiting for them on a new platform and that the transition, which may involve losing data, will be worth it.

Of course, the app market and the growth of the platforms are somewhat intertwined. Developers like to place their bets on the biggest and most profitable platforms and a big library of apps can help sell a platform. For someone who’s starting behind on apps, or whose device sales are fading or sluggish, it’s tough to break that cycle after it’s well under way. I think Windows Phone 7 probably has the best shot at escaping the downward spiral and gaining some momentum, but looking at the competition through the lens of the app advantage, I think it will be a harder road for Microsoft then the rosy projections painted by Gartner and IDC, who predict WP7 displacing iOS by 2015 as the chief rival to Android. The app ecosystem is a key factor to achieving that uptake.

Nokia chief Stephen Elop said as much when he announced that the move to Windows Phone 7 for Nokia smartphones was led by the need to compete on ecosystems. But I think it’s tough to keep building that ecosystem when you’re not selling that many phones. Nokia’s introduction of new phones will certainly help, but consumers are still going to see more apps on Android and iOS. And developers are going to need to see a lot more momentum before they really support WP7. There is hope for WP7, based on a recent Appcelerator/IDC developer survey, which found that WP7 was pulling away from BlackBerry as the third most popular smartphone option for developers. But WP7 will also have to vie for developer attention with the Kindle Fire, which is now the top Android tablet in the minds of Appcelerator developers.

I still hope that we’ll see more than just a two-horse race in smartphones. And it’s certainly possible we will see WP7 and BlackBerry rise to the challenge. But they’re going to have to offer competitive app marketplaces for consumers and developers. The emergence of HTML5 web apps might offset some of the existing advantage, but even if it does, it will likely take a while to really get going. For now, Android and iOS, with their app advantage, are enjoying the view from the top, without much fear of tumbling from their perch.

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If you think Microsoft should have all the SDK fun, just cause the company created the Kinect? Well, Evoluce clearly disagrees. The company behind Win & I and the Evoluce ONE 47-inch multitouch PC is offering devs its own tools for creating apps and interfaces that take advantage of the Kinect on Windows 7. The SDK is a free download, but it plans to release a commercial version sometime in the future — taking the battle straight to the boys in Redmond. Check out the video and PR after the break.

Continue reading Evoluce Kinect SDK hits the web, gives you an alternative to Microsoft’s wares

Evoluce Kinect SDK hits the web, gives you an alternative to Microsoft’s wares originally appeared on Engadget on Wed, 09 Nov 2011 23:38:00 EDT. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

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