Last quarter, Apple sold 797,000 Macs in Apple Stores, up 32 percent year over year. One of every five Macs sold now comes from an Apple Store, but even more important is who is buying them. Going back at least five years, about half of those buying Macs in Apple Stores are new to the platform. For the Mac, the Apple Store has contributed to the brand’s halo effect, boosting Macs sales by affinity just like the iPod, iPhone, and iPad. It’s also been instrumental to the iPad’s success, according to CEO Steve Jobs, and can’t be underestimated in terms of its contribution to how well the iPhone’s done.

Looking at the numbers, it’s hard to argue the Apple Store has been anything but a huge success (and one made visually apparent in this infographic from last year), but perhaps not a flawless one. In 2004, Apple began experimenting with “mini-stores” in six locations. While it was rumored the concept would see expansion to as many as 50 locations, that never happened, likely for the obvious reason. The mini-stores are just too small to accommodate Apple Store traffic. The above mini-store in Palo Alto is relocating to a much larger space in the same mall, and other mini-stores can be expected to follow.

Future

Besides the mini-store experiment, it’s hard to fault Apple’s execution of its retail strategy over the last ten years. But what about the future? Here are five predictions for the next ten years at the Apple Store.

1. Apple Store International: Apple expects to open around 40 stores in 2011, with only one in four of those located in the U.S. Expect that trend to accelerate, likely with a focus on China. Apple will soon be opening its fifth store in China, the same number as in Germany and just one less than France. A decade from now, China will quite possibly have more Apple Stores than any country except the U.S. and possibly the UK, which currently has 29.
2. Personal Service: Last quarter Apple set up more than one million purchased products for people in stores for free, a service competitors like Best Buy often charge for. While not all concierge services have succeeded (Personal Shopper being a noteworthy exception), expect more attempts to create and nurture relationships with customers over products and services.
3. No Software: With the launch of the Mac App Store, and now the rumored digital distribution of OS X Lion, it’s only a matter of time before boxed software disappears from the Apple Store. Signing up Microsoft for Mac Office and Adobe for its Creative Suite in the App Store will likely by the key to finally clearing that shelf space.
4. Desktop Deprecation: You don’t need to wait to 2021 to see this one coming true. Just visit any Apple Store today and count the desktops and laptops. It’s not hard to imagine the only desktop Macs on the sales floor being iMacs in just a few years.
5. Apple Television: Despite razor-thin margins, turning Apple’s tiny black box “hobby” into a flat screen with functionality and ease of use built has potential as another source of serious revenue, and there’s plenty of wall space in Apple Stores. However, first Apple must extend the App Store to the current Apple TV 2, and with an emphasis on gaming.