Coming Never: Flying Cars [Past Perfect]
The top 10 trends for cleantech in 2011
Yep, it’s that time of year where we look back at the trends of the year and then look forward to what we think the next year has in store. We know these lists have become a bit cliche by now, but they really do enable us to reflect on the big picture.
So, here we go. The top 10 trends in greentech in 2011:
1). Solar prices plummet: One of the most overwhelming market drivers of 2011 was the massive price drop of solar modules. Researchers have found that the price of solar dropped by 40 percent in 2011. Part of that had to do with Chinese solar manufacturers flooding the market with low cost solar, creating an oversupply and benefiting from low cost loans from the Chinese government.
The result of these rock bottom prices has produced several things: 1). solar module makers are selling solar for below prices they can afford and that has led to bankruptcies for many solar companies; 2). super low cost solar will just help the proliferation of solar panels for consumers as it has become even more economical; 3). solar panels are 
now substantially cheaper than solar thermal in many cases and some solar developers that previously were focused on solar thermal have decided to use solar panels instead.
2). India set to become cleantech power house: When you think of developing countries and cleantech, you think of China. But India is creating a major market through its solar initiatives, smart grid plans and water infrastructure buildout. A large part of the 1.2 billion population is moving into the middle class and that means they will want more energy, more clean water and more quality food. It’s one of the few markets where cleantech will be able to grow 
without major subsidies.
3). Biofuel companies push for IPOs., aftermath varies: The bulk of the IPOs from greentech companies in the U.S., came from biofuel firms with little revenues, no profits, and often times no commercial product. Amyris hit the public markets at the end of 2010, Gevo went public in February, Solazyme in March, and KiOR in June. Companies that have filed but haven’t actually gone public include Coskata (filed in December), Mascoma (filed in September) and Fulcrum BioEnergy (in September). Most of these stocks have faltered in recent months — will the ones 
waiting in the wings have a good response if they go public in 2012?
4). Batteries still suck: Batteries are still the pain point for electric cars and power for computing technology. While information technology is still moving at a lighting pace, thanks to Moore’s law, battery tech hasn’t progressed any close to IT. That doesn’t mean startups and researchers aren’t trying it’s just taking an awfully long time. Will 2012 show any surprising improvement?
5). Solar CIGS players held on: Despite the high profile bankruptcy of Solyndra and the difficult economics of the solar market, many of the thin film solar companies using the material CIGS are still holding on for dear life. HelioVolt and Stion found backers in Korea, Nanosolar is still 
around, and Miasole has changed its management team but is still pushing forward. However, we’d predict that some of these players will start to struggle even more in 2012.
6). Slow going for electric vehicles: GM’s Volt didn’t hit its sales goals for 2011 of 10,000 cars sold, particularly due to production issues. Nissan’s LEAF sold around 20,000 globally in 2011. And these were the largest EV sellers in 2011. Even worse, some electric car companies struggled and bowed out of the difficult market 
including Think and Aptera.
We’ll see if GM and Nissan can get their numbers up significantly in 2012, while startups Fisker and Coda have a lot to prove next year. Meanwhile Tesla will be launching its Model S sedan, so all eyes will be on Tesla as it continues to pioneer the independent EV market.
7). Waiting for IPOs: Despite a couple of biofuel IPOs, the IPO market for most of greentech remained shut throughout 2011. Companies that had been planning for months, if not years, to go public in 2011 were forced to find other options. Smart grid company Silver Spring Networks raised private financing even though it filed an S1 earlier this year, and eMeter opted for an acquisition to Siemens, instead of a long contemplated IPO.
8). Year of large solar power developers: While 2011 will be remembered as a troubling year for solar manufacturers, it also is a year when major U.S. power companies took a plunge into investing and owning a lot more solar power plants. Cheap solar panels mean solar developers are 
even more ready to buy them up and install them in sunny areas of the U.S. and a variety of state mandates are requiring more solar farms for utilities.
9). The politicization of clean energy and green jobs: Unfortunately Solyndra was the biggest — and the longest running by far — news story in greentech in 2011. That’s because the bankruptcy of the company and the lost DOE loan turned into a political talking point for house republicans. Expect more Solyndra sprinklings all the way up until the election in 2012.
10). The cleanweb is here: In early 2011, when cleantech exits were scarce and funding had dropped, many investors and startups were turning to the cleanweb, or essentially using mobile and web to manage resource constraint, from energy to water to food. These technologies, investors are hoping, will offer better returns similar to Internet companies. They are also much more capital efficient than large scale clean energy projects.
Image courtesy of Rob Boudon.
Related research and analysis from GigaOM Pro:
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This Is How a Real Luxury Car Is Made [Video]
Greentech struggles are business as usual for the Valley
In the past two weeks, we’ve seen at least three green technology CEOs sent home to spend more time with their families, two companies implode, a trade war escalate between China and the U.S. over solar and Google cancel its program to develop technology that can producer power cheaper than coal. Only one bright spot of news has stood out recently: Siemens bought eMeter, a smart grid software company, for an undisclosed amount.
Do these struggles represent the beginning of the end for green technology?
Overall, it looks like business as usual for Silicon Valley, which, of course, is good. Only one in ten start-ups ever make it, VCs like to say. Failure makes you stronger. Some CEOs are visionaries and others are professional managers geared toward scaling up companies, etc. etc.
Remember all of those articles with journalists yammering about how green technology needs a Netscape moment? Well, this is it. But it’s not the moment when Netscape zoomed in its IPO. It’s the moment when it got absorbed into the gaping maw of AOL. Netscape became irrelevant, but life went on. The Internet, in fact, became even larger. Netscape’s demise simply proved that the so-called First Mover Advantage is vastly overrated.
Computing didn’t die with Sperry Rand either.
The analogy between green and computing isn’t perfect. Green technologies often require far more capital and time to get to market. Many also have to compete against existing technologies — like coal and incandescent light bulbs — that have spent decades winnowing out costs and building up manufacturing 
infrastructure. But VCs have thrown away large amounts of capital on companies serving the web, too. Anyone remember Akimbo? @Home? AltaVista?
Green technologies tend to get subjected to a higher level of scrutiny. Some critics seem emotionally dead set against the industry. Incumbents want to undermine it. Many entrepreneurs also grossly underestimated the technological challenges. Still, the reaction seems to go over the top. The founder of Friendster didn’t have to commit the public equivalent of self-immolation because Facebook succeeded and Friendster didn’t. But the public seems to want blood from every green company that fails to achieve corporate immortality.
Case Studies
Examine the two prominent collapses. Aptera wanted to make three-wheeled cars. Both Google and NRG Energy invested in it while Darrell Issa, the Republican Congressional Representative 
that championed investigations into Solyndra, sought to get federal loan guarantees for the company.
The Aptera 2e was a blast to drive. After emerging from the car during a test drive in San Francisco in 2009, individuals on the sidewalk stopped to take my picture and ask me questions. I felt like the Man of the Future: if only I had worn my silver skin suit.
But buy it? Three-wheeled cars have been nonstarters for years. Buckminster Fuller’s Dymaxion crashed during its public debut. Sidecars as a fashion statement went out with the Third Reich. The only truly successful three-wheeled vehicle has been the wheelbarrow. Aptera had one really interesting aspect to it: the body was made from a high-tech composite that is stronger than metal but far lighter.
Range Fuels, meanwhile, wanted to produce cellulosic biofuel with a variant of the Fischer-Tropsch process. FT, however, has only been popular with countries and regimes — Apartheid-era South Africa and again the Third Reich — cut off from oil imports. Companies with arguably more advanced processes leveraging biology — Solazyme, Gevo, and Amyris — all pulled off IPOs.
Range Fuel’s success in landing VC fund and government loans was to some degree due to its fortunate timing. It emerged at the dawn of green tech investing, when VCs and others were optimistic and desperate for new ideas to fund. At the time, many also mistakenly believed that the same skills required to succeed in computers would directly map to green. Mitch Mandich, a former Apple exec, served as CEO. Few people would now think, “Fuel additives, all-in-one desktops that come in five designer colors. It’s all just sales. Hire him.”
Now look at Google terminating the RE<C Program, an initiative to develop technologies that could produce electricity at cheaper prices than coal. A noble ambition, but not one for a software company. Google was building heliostats, or mirrors, for solar thermal power plants. Imagine being an engineer on that project. You’re in the company cafeteria where everyone is talking about deep linking and you’re 
trying to steer the conversation to reflective surfaces. All of your closest peers are at Brightsource Energy, 3M and DuPont. You might as well have a hairy mole on your upper lip.
Google, however, is not giving up on green energy. It desperately needs to get a handle on its energy consumption. It will continue to invest in solar farms, as well as use Google Ventures to get an early look at technologies like the AC-DC converters from Transphorm. In other words, it will begin to act more like Intel Capital than a nonprofit.
China’s trade war? Things will get cheaper and the case will drag out until everyone has forgotten it.
Only a few hit it big
And now for the positive news: Siemens will buy eMeter. For years, eMeter has been one of the most promising and successful start-ups in smart grid. If eMeter were a cloud company, it might have been able to stay independent for a longer time.
But the smart grid is an unusual market with a very, circumscribed client base. Only around 3,000 utilities exist in North America versus the hundreds of thousands of customers that want cloud services. Utilities also tend to be quite conservative. An acquisition was the logical, inevitable outcome.
Expect more to follow. Conglomerates like Siemens, Areva, Schneider, Toshiba and ABB have been on an extended shopping spree in the U.S.
So cheer up. This is par for the course.
Related research and analysis from GigaOM Pro:
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- Green IT’s Q4 Winners: Wind Power, Solar Power, Smart Energy
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Toyota FCV-R concept brings fuel cell cars closer to reality, aiming for 2015 launch
Amongst the many concept EVs we’ve seen at the Tokyo Motor Show this week, Toyota thinks that fuel cell vehicles still have a chance. Hence the above cool-looking FCV-R, an actual functional hydrogen car featuring a multi-LCD panel dashboard along with a driving range of around 700km or 435 miles. Alas, interested buyers will have to wait until around 2015 before Toyota launches its first fuel cell car, which is currently projected to cost around 5,000. And of course, there’s no saying on whether hydrogen fuel stations will be widely available across the nation by then. For now though, you can take a closer look at the FCV-R in our video after the break.
Gallery: Toyota FCV-R hands-on
Continue reading Toyota FCV-R concept brings fuel cell cars closer to reality, aiming for 2015 launch
Toyota FCV-R concept brings fuel cell cars closer to reality, aiming for 2015 launch originally appeared on Engadget on Thu, 01 Dec 2011 20:08:00 EDT. Please see our terms for use of feeds.
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